At the start of 2025, there was no shortage of housing market predictions. Rate cuts were coming. Buyers would flood back. Sellers would finally feel confident again. Sales volume would rebound.

Some of that happened. Some of it… didn’t.

As we close out the year, it’s worth doing a realistic gut check on what actually played out — and more importantly, what that tells us about the road ahead in 2026.

What the Experts Got Wrong

The biggest miss? Home sales volume.

Despite widespread optimism, transaction activity never fully recovered the way many forecasts suggested. While interest rates did ease slightly at points during the year, affordability remained a real challenge — especially in higher-cost markets like Silicon Valley.

Many buyers stayed cautious. Others could qualify on paper but struggled emotionally with today’s monthly payments compared to what they could have had just a few years ago. That hesitation kept a meaningful number of people on the sidelines.

At the same time, many homeowners remained “rate locked.” With mortgages in the 2–4% range, selling simply didn’t make financial sense for everyone — even if they wanted a change.

What Did Go Right

While sales volume lagged, pricing stability was one of the quiet wins of 2025.

Contrary to fears of a major correction, most markets saw:

• Modest price growth or flat pricing

• Strong demand for well-located, well-prepared homes

• Competitive situations in desirable neighborhoods

Inventory improved slightly, giving buyers more choice, but not enough to dramatically shift leverage. In other words: no crash, no frenzy — just a more balanced, thoughtful market.

Another positive sign? Serious buyers stayed serious. The people who moved forward in 2025 did so with intention, strong financing, and long-term plans. That’s a healthier dynamic for everyone involved.

What This Tells Us About 2026

Heading into 2026, the market feels less about predictions and more about positioning.

Here’s what I’m watching closely:

• Gradual rate relief — helpful, but not transformational overnight

• Continued demand from life-driven buyers (marriage, kids, downsizing, relocation)

• More selective buyers who value quality over urgency

• Sellers who price correctly from day one will win

If rates drift lower and inventory continues to open up even slightly, we could see a steadier increase in activity — not a surge, but a return to momentum.

The Big Takeaway

2025 reminded us that real estate doesn’t move on headlines — it moves on confidence, affordability, and timing that makes sense for real people.

For buyers, patience and preparation mattered.
For sellers, strategy mattered more than ever.
And for everyone, having clear guidance made all the difference.

As we look toward 2026, the opportunity won’t be about “beating the market” — it will be about understanding it and moving with intention.

If you’re thinking about buying, selling, or simply want to talk through what this next year could look like for you, I’m always happy to be a resource.